Strategic planning is a paradox: how can we plan for an unknowable future?
The proposed solution is to have several imagined future scenarios with an
optimal strategy for each scenario. With these in place. top level leaders
manage commitment to the short term goals while managing the uncertainty
of the long term possibilities. It’s a “slippery slope”.
If having several scenarios is necessary for having an effective strategy, how
do we create them? Here are guidelines from several consultants who help
organizations create scenarios.
Strategic scenarios are stories of different futures, each with a plan to
produce the vision / desired outcomes with that story.
It is visualizing / defining the organization in several different imagined
futures / environments. It’s like multi-faceted forecasting.
It requires TIME, reflection, different perspectives, openness, imagination,
creativity… and NOT saying “that won’t happen / could never happen”. The
unimaginable becomes imaginable.
Many consultants suggest having these stories for 10 years into the future.
REFLECT:
Have you ever worked for an organization with future scenarios?
If so, how were they created?
How did the affect the organizational operations?
Scenario Prep Questions:
- How would you define the role / purpose of your organization?
- Which external factors are having or could have a significant influence
on your response to the strategic challenge? - What significant developments do you expect to occur in the future?
- What are 3 things you’d most like to know about the future?
- What does a prosperous future for your organization look and feel like?
- What does a non-prosperous future for your organization look and feel
like? - What are the major decisions on your planning horizon?
- What are internal constraints to change?
- What are external constraints to change?
- What important events from the past provide important lessons for the
future? - What are the sacred cows / untouchable aspects of your business?
- What are the unwritten rules that guide decision making?
- What are the unwritten rules that guide behavior?
- What would you like to leave behind as a legacy / be remembered for?
Discuss the areas of uncertainty:
- macroeconomy
- technology
- regulations/policy
- environment
- public / customer outlook
Consider trends – noticeable shifts – emerging pattern of behavior
that represent a change in consume attitudes, preferences, and
behaviors
Examine potential shifts in relation to
Dirty secrets – the public doesn’t know about them
- What practices are the public unaware of – that if they were
aware of — would alter their perspective of who we are and what
we do?
Cultural Hypocrisies – the public doesn’t see them
- What events might cause the public to overcome their cultural
blindness about these?
Unresolved Tensions – the public doesn’t like them but tolerates them
because they feel they have no choice / power over them.
- Systemic Inequities – marginalized people
- Slow Burning issues – the public doesn’t care about them
- What is the false part of the dominant paradigm?
- Social Values -the public is the issue
what are the dominant values and what events / conditions could
cause them to change?
Provide the most informed thoughts about the following
areas:
- The Industry – customers, suppliers, manufacturers regulators,
distributors, competitors, employees, unions and other industry
related stakeholders - The Social Environment – mental and physical people factors:
demographics, social values, world views, culture, customs,
health, education - Technology – access to, use of and cost of technology and ongoing
advancement - The Economy – income and wealth, employment and industry
dynamics, exchange rates, inflation, trade, energy prices, debt
and interest rates - The Environment – natural resources, climate change, ecological factors
- Politics – rules of the game – government policies, expendituresfunding, taxes, regulations, geopolitical relati
After considering as many factors as possible, and creating 10 year scenarios,
ask:
- What will the balance of power be in these scenarios?
- What business model will make sense in these scenarios?
- What markets should we abandon in these scenarios?
- What new markets should we enter in these scenarios?
REFLECT:
What prevents your organization from engaging in this complex process?
Which part(s) could be adopted / adapted?
APPLY:
Choose ONE element and practice it.
